Date: 2011-05-12 07:02 pm (UTC)
ext_28681: (Default)
I wonder. You will note that the British team that tested the FBI's profiles for perception of accuracy found that the profile was rated just as "accurate" when describing a made-up fictional perpetrator as the person who was caught. As far as I can tell, profiling isn't really usefully eliminative at all -- it can't tell you who definitely didn't do it. The best it can do is say, based on known criminal cases, someone may be more or less likely to have committed this one. But as the study checking the usefulness of the organized/disorganized distinction and the one checking on similarities between perpetrators of similar crimes suggest, there are far more exceptions than not to these "rules" so there's a real question whether profiling really tells you much about the "probable" perp at all. I suspect that, at base, it's really just a parlor game.
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