truepenny | UBC: Paulides, Missing 411: A Sobering Coincidence (Reply)

Missing 411: A Sobering Coincidence by David Paulides

My rating: 2 of 5 stars

[library]

I know these Missing 411 reviews are extremely repetitive, which I suppose in some important way is indicative of the nature of the beasts involved, both missing persons cases (which are, of course, horribly, all the same story, with different characters and different sets, but essentially the same action) and the fringe pseudoscience conspiracy theory cult thinkers who are Paulides' primary audience. Because he's pitching to them, he can never come to firm conclusions or state anything outright: he has to leave ambiguous space for them to fill in the blanks. In some of his books he hints strongly at Bigfoot. In this one he hints strongly at alien abduction.

What's deeply frustrating about Paulides is that in his raw data, he could be compiling valuable statistics, tracking important patterns, maybe providing a genuine theory or two about what happens when someone goes missing--or in this book, when someone gets drunk, goes missing, and ends up dead in the nearest body of water. (Especially young men in La Crosse, Wisconsin, because I think I agree something hinky is going on there, although my guess would be serial killer rather than aliens.) But he fails consistently to do so, partly because he has to keep things open-ended and partly because dudebro does not understand either statistics or probability theory, and does not know the meaning of the word "coincidence" I swear to god although he uses it repeatedly.

In this particular book, and maybe the most egregious of all possible examples, we have first the case of Elisa Lam, who vanished (with some very peculiar footage on the CCTV) and was found in the roof watertank of the Los Angeles hotel she'd been staying in. Now, there are serious questions about how she got into that tank, assuming that he's presented all the information available (he's right to emphasize how extraordinarily difficult it would have been for her to either accidentally or on purpose get into the tank by herself), but Paulides goes haring after a very peculiar coincidence: at the same time Elisa Lam died, there was a severe outbreak of TB in Los Angeles, and one of the tests used to identify the strain was the LAM ELISA. Yes, that's bizarre. BUT IT IS A FUCKING COINCIDENCE.

On the other hand, back in his "Other Water-Related Cases" section, which is basically a catchall for things he wants to include that don't fit his "criteria," there's the case of Frances St. John Smith, who disappeared from Smith College (where she was a freshman) on January 13, 1928, and was pulled out of the Connecticut River March 29, 1929, in Longmeadow MA. Now on the same day (January 13, 1928), a Smith College junior, Alice Corbett also disappeared. Corbett has never been found.

While Paulides says he thinks he should include Corbett in one of his next books, he thinks the fact that two Smith College students disappeared on the same day is nothing but an interesting coincidence, and I'm sorry, just like I can't buy that the LAM ELISA test is anything more than a bizarre coincidence in relationship to Elisa Lam's death, I cannot buy that two young women from that small and restricted a population (fewer than 2,000 women) disappearing on the same day is coincidental. I don't know what the connection is (I can make up stories very easily, but they'd only be stories), but I am not buying that there is no connection between Frances St. John Smith's disappearance and Alice Corbett's.

So there's that. There are the problems I've talked about in other Missing 411 reviews, like the lack of a control group, the sloppy research, etc. etc., but there's some particular problems with this book.

1. As in Missing 411: Hunters, Paulides' "criteria" have magically produced a sinister phenomenon that only happens to white men. In this case, it only happens to young, white, college-educated men. To me, this says there's something wrong with his study. I don't buy that the aliens are only interested in young white men. And I think statistics on drowning, properly compiled, would suggest a very different panorama than the one Paulides is trying to sell.

2. There's this weird disjunct between Paulides insisting that all of these young men are bright, generous, moral, outstanding et cetera, and the fact that they're out getting shitfaced when they disappear. Several of them get thrown out of bars or have encounters with the police the night they disappear. One got cited for underage drinking and using a false ID, and yet Paulides is still saying he's responsible and mature, like this is totally a thing that responsible and mature people do.

(I'm judging, yes, but not them. Young college-age men go out and get shitfaced and make bad decisions all the time, and while I don't think it's a great idea, I don't think it makes them bad people and I certainly don't think it means they somehow "deserve" what happened to them. I'm judging Paulides for pulling the "he was such a nice boy" schtick. He marvels at how many people say the missing/dead young man was a wonderful human being, which is either painfully disingenuous or painfully naive and I don't know which. OF COURSE THEY SAY THAT.)

3. He repeatedly uses the word "intellect" when he means "intellectual," and it drives me up the wall.

4. Apparently, no one has ever told him that drinking alcohol impairs your judgment.

5. Sometimes it's like he isn't reading his own research. "I silently chuckle to myself when I read older articles talking about amnesia as a reason for a disappearance. In the early 1900s and late 1800s, I've often read these types of theories. I have never seen a credible allegation in more modern times" (199).

AND YET.

139 pages earlier, he presents the case of Stephen Kubacki, one of only two survivors in the whole book. Stephen disappeared in Holland, MI, February 19, 1978, under what are quite puzzling circumstances not gonna lie, and "woke up" May 5, 1979 in Pittsfield, MA. "He told me he lost consciousness," his father said, "and he didn't remember anything until he woke up in Pittsfield" (62). Kubacki himself said, "I didn't know where I was. I was wearing clothes that weren't mine. I started going through a backpack, which I assumed was mine and I found maps. I would guess I was hitchhiking. I didn't know what the date was until I walked into town and got a newspaper" (62).

Assuming you believe Kubacki is truthful, which there doesn't seem to be a reason not to, this is a case of "amnesia as a reason for a disappearance." Of course, Paulides (won't admit he) believes Kubacki was abducted by aliens and that's the explanation for his missing fifteen months, but seriously. Are you reading your own words, dude?

There's another case where he cites the victim's blood alcohol content and further down the page asserts the body was so drained of blood that no tests could be made, and I don't know what the hell's going on there at all.

I find the subject matter of the Missing 411 books both fascinating and tragic; I find Paulides as a Virgil deeply frustrating.

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